I feel like a storyteller here. Once upon a time a bunch of scientists
got together, and between them made a potion of figures and measurements
which when put together made a hockey stick. The trouble was when
anyone tried to use it it changed shape and wouldn't work, but no one
else could replace it and everyone was forced to try and use it even
though it never seemed to be stable enough to work.
Many years
later, although one of his tricks was required to create it, by casting a
spell over hundreds of tree rings to make all but a few disappear and
use them to both raise the tip of the hockey stick, and then vanish in a
tangle of lines when it started heading the wrong way, Keith Briffa saw
the angry clouds of fate heading his way, threatening to rain on his
chips and make his hockey stick so soggy it could melt away. To quickly
get out of the path he and two colleagues went back to the spell and
took out all the funny incantations, such as 'abracadabra and alakazam,
make these rings for Michael Mann' or 'by the powers of Greyskull make
these threes into sevens' and the like, leaving only the boring stuff
like 'one and one is two, two and two is four' etc, which is deadly dull
but impossible to question.
And then they concluded the trick
was only an illusion and should not be relied on. He is probably going
to be awarded a halo for this redeeming action, and had they not been
part of the same illusion a Nobel Prize. I may even send him a Christmas
card myself now.
Where's the beef?
Here be the summary:
We
describe the analysis of existing and new maximum-latewood-density
(MXD) and tree-ring width (TRW) data from the Torneträsk region of
northern Sweden and the construction of 1500 year chronologies. Some
previous work found that MXD and TRW chronologies from Torneträsk were
inconsistent over the most recent 200 years, even though they both
reflect predominantly summer temperature influences on tree growth. We
show that this was partly a result of systematic bias in MXD data
measurements and partly a result of inhomogeneous sample selection from
living trees (modern sample bias). We use refinements of the simple
Regional Curve Standardisation (RCS) method of chronology construction
to identify and mitigate these biases. The new MXD and TRW chronologies
now present a largely consistent picture of long-timescale changes in
past summer temperature in this region over their full length,
indicating similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP,
c. CE 900–1100) and the latter half of the 20th century. Future work
involving the updating of MXD chronologies using differently sourced
measurements may require similar analysis and appropriate adjustment to
that described here to make the data suitable for the production of
un-biased RCS chronologies. The use of ‘growth-rate’ based multiple RCS
curves is recommended to identify and mitigate the problem of ‘modern
sample bias’.
Michael Mann, the official owner of the
hockey stick, has yet to answer the revised decision, although it is
only but hours old. My bet is he isn't going to though, and for the
double no one's going to ask him. Not even Keith, he's already off the
hook.
If people trust their authorities they will accept whatever they are told and are always shocked the rare times they are exposed as criminals. This material allows everyone to read the signs and spot the patterns everywhere and not be taken in. The same psychological methods have been used to create illusions since the bible mentioned the serpent, and the ways to see through them have been the same as well.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment